The scale and epistemology of coral bleaching in Papua New Guinea

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Marine

Coral bleaching events around the world appear to be increasing in frequency and severity, with the 2002 bleaching events reportedly causing greater coral mortality than those in 1998. The primary driver is global (i.e. excessive CO2 production in industrial countries), while the impact is local, and highly variable. Ecological, and consequent socio-economic impacts of coral bleaching may not be measurable in relatively lightly bleached areas, such as Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea, for perhaps 10 or more years, though medium to long term (10-50 years) impacts might well be dramatic. However recent work indicates that the nature of bleaching, and bleaching-induced mortality, ise xtremely complex, and there is still some debate on issues such as the potential for corals and their symbionts to adapt to rising sea temperatures. There may be a level of general recovery in the long term (> 50 years), due to differential survival and expansion of more resistant species, but a significant proportion of the world’s reefs are unlikely to
ever again resemble pre-1980s community structure. This issue illustrates the importance of considerations of scale, both in space and time, in assessing the impact of this increasingly dramatic dimension of climate change.